Global Energy Challenge
The Paris climate agreement was an incredible achievement. However, humanity is rapidly running out of time to hit the “1.5 degree” target. The current plans and programs are not getting us there. A radical change of pace is required. We believe renewable energy is absolutely essential in every future energy scenario. But while we substitute fossil fuels with renewables, fossil fuel use is still rising in absolute terms. The goal of 1.5 degrees will never be reached in time if the traditional fossil fuel industry is not leading the way.
- There is increased environmental pressure on traditional fossil fuel industry.
- Even with the emergence of renewables global CO2 emissions are not decreasing in absolute terms.
- The demand for electrical power is growing rapidly in much of the developing world.
- New sources of (renewable) energy cannot economically replace fossil based energy, in time available.
- There is a continued reliance on fossil fuels to supply bulk of global energy needs.
- There is an increased need for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to counter the accelerating production decline in mature fields.
- Large parts of the world’s natural gas reserves are ‘stranded’ due to high CO2 content
Electricity demand by region
Source: ExxonMobil, 2015 The Outlook for Energy: a view to 2040
US Energy-related CO2 emission projections in six cases
Source: EIA, 2015 Energy Outlook 2015
World giant oilfield population decline rate
Source: M. Höök, R. Hirsch, K. Aleklett 2009 Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production
Global primary energy consumption
Source: BP, 2014 Energy Outlook 2035 insights
New solutions are required to support a global energy transition
World Energy Transition
The effective management at primary energy supply from domestic and external sources, the reliabilityof energy infrastructure, and the ability of energy providers to meet current and future demand.
Accessibility and affordability of energy supply across the population.
Encompasses the achievement of supply and demand side energy efﬁciencies and the development of energy supply from renewable and other low-carbon sources.
The consensus view from global energy transformation studies and scenarios is as follows:
- The global energy mix in 2050 will still be based mainly on fossil fuels.
- To balance the ‘Energy Trillemma’ we must embrace CCUS and transform the traditional fossil fuel industry.
Fossil energy industry must find ways to become increasingly ‘emission free’
The 10 key messages from the World Energy Scenarios by the World Energy Council are:
- Energy system complexity will increase by 2050.
- Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply.
- The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based.
- Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solution to the energy trillemma.
- The global economy will be challenged to meet 450ppm target without unacceptable carbon prices.
- A low-carbon future is not only linked to renewables: CC(U)S is important and customer behaviour needs changing.
- CC(U)S technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key uncertainties ip to 2050.
- Balancing the energy trillemma means making difficult choices.
- Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration to deliver benefits to all consumers.
- Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver
TriGen Oxy-Fuel Technology offers an attractive solution…